Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 1

Summary

 U.S. employment decreased by 20.5 million jobs in April; the unemployment rate rose

to 14.7%.

 Real U.S. GDP growth declined 4.8% in the first quarter.

 The decline in Washington employment in April was unprecedented.

 The ISM-WW Index declined further into negative territory.

 Washington car and truck sales plummeted to the lowest level in the history of the

series.

 This is the first collection report to show large negative revenue impacts from the

COVID-19-related economic shutdowns.

 Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the April 11 - May 10, 2020

collection period came in $434.6 million (22.5%) lower than the February forecast.

 About half of this month’s shortfall was due to DOR-approved deferrals of payments

for a large number of monthly filers and all quarterly filers. These payments, totaling

approximately $200 million, are expected to arrive before the end of June.

 Cumulatively, collections since February 11 are now $428.5 million (8.7%) below the

forecast. Adjusted for the deferred payments, the cumulative shortfall is

approximately $229 million (4.7%).

United States

Almost all economic data were negative this

month. Nationally, the labor market saw the

unemployment rate reach its highest level in the

history of the series which dates back to January

1948. Residential construction and sales

weakened, manufacturing activity contracted and

construction and service sectors slowed.

National employment fell by 20.5 million net jobs

in April, reflecting the impacts of business

closures and other measures related to the

containment of COVID-19. Employment data for

February and March were revised down by

214,000 jobs. Sectors with the largest job losses

in April included accommodation and food service

(-6.3 million), retail trade (-2.1 million),

administrative and support services (-1.5 million),

health care (-1.4 million), manufacturing (-1.3

million), arts, entertainment and recreation (-1.3

million), other services (-1.3 million),

construction (-1.0 million) and local government

(-0.8 million).

Initial claims for unemployment insurance

decreased 4,000 to 211,000 (SA) in the week

ending March 7

. The four-week moving average

of initial claims increased by 1,250 to 214,000.

Layoff announcements in April, as tracked by

outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and

Christmas, totaled 671,129, the highest monthly

total in the history of the series which dates back

to January 1993. The COVID-19 pandemic was

responsible for 633,082 of these job cuts.

Economic &

Revenue Update

May 15, 2020

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 2

Average hourly earnings increased by $1.34 in

April. This increase is largely due to the

disproportionate job loss among low-wage

workers rather than an increase in wages. The

average workweek in April increased 0.1 hours to

34.2 hours. The unemployment rate in April was

14.7%, 10.3 percentage points above the March

rate of 4.4%.

The first estimate of real U.S. GDP growth for the

first quarter of 2020 was a decrease of 4.8%

(SAAR), with declines in personal consumption

expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment and

exports (see figure). In the fourth quarter of

2019, real GDP grew by 2.1%.

Manufacturing activity, already slowing in March,

contracted further in April. The Institute for

Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index

(PMI) decreased by 7.6 points to 41.5 (50 or

higher indicates growth). The non-manufacturing

PMI for April was 41.8, 10.7 points below the

March reading. This breaks a string of 122

consecutive months above 50 for the non-

manufacturing index.

Industrial production in March decreased by 5.4%

(SA) compared to February. Over the year,

industrial production is down by 5.5% (SA). New

orders for core capital goods (i.e., durables

excluding aircraft and military), which is a proxy

for business investment, decreased by 0.1% (SA)

in March following a 0.7% decrease in February

according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

Light motor vehicle (autos and light trucks) sales

in March decreased by 32.2% (SA) from February

and fell by 34.2% over the year. The 11.4 million

vehicles (SAAR) sold in March is the lowest

monthly total since April 2010.

Residential construction and home sales data

were all weaker this month. Housing units

authorized by building permits in March were

6.8% (SA) below their February level but 5.0%

above their year-ago level. March housing starts

decreased by 22.3% (SA) compared to February

but were 1.4% above their March 2019 level.

New home sales in March decreased by 15.4%

(SA) compared to February and were 9.5% below

their year-ago level. Existing home sales in

March decreased by 8.5% (SA) compared to

February but were up 0.8% compared to March

2019. The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller

national home price index for February was 0.5%

above its January level and 4.1% above its year-

ago level.

April consumer confidence indicators posted sharp

declines. The Conference Board index of

consumer confidence decreased by 31.9 points in

April to 86.9. The record decline in consumers’

assessment of current economic conditions was

partially offset by an improvement in the short-

term outlook for jobs and financial prospects,

likely prompted by the expectation that stay-at-

home restrictions will be relaxed in the near

future. The University of Michigan (UM)

consumer sentiment index decreased by 17.3

points to 71.8 in April. This is the lowest level for

the index since December 2011.

Petroleum spot prices dropped during April but

recovered somewhat in the last two weeks. For

the week ending May 8

, U.S. benchmark West

Texas Intermediate was $23 per barrel,

essentially unchanged from a month earlier but

well above its recent low point of $3 in late April.

European benchmark Brent fell to $14 per barrel

in late April before rising to $24 per barrel for the

week ending May 8

, $1 higher than during the

week of April 10

. Gasoline prices were

unchanged between April 13

and May 11

$1.85 per gallon (regular, all formulations).

The American Trucking Association’s truck

tonnage index increased 1.2% (SA) in March

following a 1.8% (SA) increase in February. The

index is 4.3% above its year-ago level. Rail

carloads for April were 12.6% (SA) below their

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Percent, SAAR

GDP growth has plummeted

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 3

March level and 24.7% below their year-ago

level. Intermodal rail units (shipping containers

or truck trailers) were 7.1% (SA) below their

March level and 16.9% below their April 2019

level.

Washington

The decline in Washington employment in April

was unprecedented in its depth and speed (see

figure). We have four months of new Washington

employment data since the February forecast was

released. Total nonfarm payroll employment fell

453,000 (seasonally adjusted) in April and

446,200 in the four-month period. The February

forecast expected an increase of 27,500 in

January, February, March, and April. Private

services-providing sectors lost 359,300 jobs in

the four-month period. Construction employment

declined by 47,200 jobs and manufacturing

declined by 27,700 jobs including the loss of

8,300 aerospace jobs. Government payrolls

declined by 11,100 jobs in January, February,

March, and April.

Washington housing construction slowed in the

first quarter of 2020 but still exceeded the

February forecast. In the first quarter, 49,800

units (SAAR) were permitted, down from 54,400

in the fourth quarter of 2019. First quarter

permits consisted of 24,800 single-family units

and 25,000 multi-family units. The February

forecast assumed an average rate of 44,900

(SAAR) units for the first quarter consisting of

23,700 single-family units and 21,200 multi-

family units.

Seattle-area home prices rose over the year for a

seventh consecutive month in February following

year-over-year declines in the previous three

months. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home

Price Indices, seasonally adjusted Seattle home

prices increased 0.8% in February, the tenth

consecutive monthly increase. Because of the

strong growth in the last several months,

February Seattle home prices were up 5.9% over

the year. In comparison, the composite-20 index

was up 3.4% over the year. February Seattle

home prices were up 100% since the December

2011 trough and exceeded the May 2007 peak by

39%.

Seattle-area consumer price inflation exceeded

the national average due mostly to the volatile

food and energy components. From April 2019 to

April 2020, the Seattle CPI rose 1.3% compared

to a 0.4% increase in the U.S. City Average

index. Energy prices fell less in Seattle than

elsewhere and food prices rose more. Core

prices, which exclude food and energy, increased

1.6% over the year in Seattle compared to 1.4%

for the U.S. City Average. Over-the-year shelter-

cost inflation in Seattle was 3.1% compared to

the national rate of 2.6%. Seattle inflation

excluding shelter exceeded the national average

at 0.3% compared to -0.7%.

Washington exports declined over the year for a

sixth consecutive quarter. Year-over-year

exports decreased 35.1% in the first quarter of

2020. The large decline was mostly because of

transportation equipment exports (mostly Boeing

planes) which fell 59.2% over the year. Boeing

suspended deliveries of the 737 Max in March

2019. First quarter exports of agricultural

products decreased 21.3% over the year and

exports of all other commodities (mostly

manufacturing) declined 5.7% over the year.

The Institute of Supply Management - Western

Washington Index (ISM-WW) declined further into

negative territory in April. The index, which

measures conditions in the manufacturing sector,

declined from 52.0 in February to 46.0 in March

and 38.5 in April (index values above 50 indicate

growth while values below 50 indicate

contraction). The production, orders,

employment, and inventory components all

indicated contraction in April. As in March, only

the deliveries components indicated expansion,

however this is misleading. A slowing of

deliveries is a plus for the index as it normally

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Thousands

The job loss in April was unprecedented

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 4

reflects strong demand. In the current context

the slowing of vendor deliveries is due to supply

disruptions.

Washington car and truck sales plummeted to the

lowest level in the history of the series which dates

back to July 1970. The seasonally adjusted number

of new vehicle registrations fell 63.5% from March

to April and 68.9% over the year.

Revenue

Overview

This is the first collection report to show large

negative revenue impacts from the COVID-19-

related economic shutdowns. Major General

Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the

April 11 - May 10, 2020 collection period came in

$434.6 million (22.5%) lower than the February

forecast. About half of this month’s shortfall,

however, was due to DOR-approved deferrals of

payments for a large number of monthly filers

and all quarterly filers. These payments, totaling

approximately $200 million, are expected to

arrive before the end of June. Cumulatively,

collections since February 11 are now $428.5

million (8.7%) below the forecast. Adjusted for

the deferred payments, the cumulative shortfall is

approximately $229 million (4.7%).

Revenue Act

Revenue Act taxes consist of the sales, use,

business and occupation (B&O), utility, and

tobacco products taxes along with associated

penalty and interest payments. The revenue

collections reported here are for the April 11 –

May 10, 2020 collection period. Collections

correspond primarily to the March 2020 economic

activity of monthly filers and first quarter 2020

activity of quarterly filers.

Revenue Act collections for the current period

came in $406.9 million (25.6%) below the

February forecast. Approximately $200 million of

shortfall, however, was due to DOR-approved

deferrals of payments for a large number of

monthly filers and all quarterly filers. The

deferred payments are expected to arrive before

the end of June. Without the deferred payments,

collections would have been $206.9 million

(13.0%) lower than forecasted. Adjusted for the

deferrals, collections decreased 7.1% year over

year (see figure). The 12-month moving average

of year-over-year growth decreased to 5.5%.

Even adjusted for the deferrals, seasonally

adjusted collections dropped sharply (see figure).

Cumulatively, collections are now $436.0 million

(10.3%) lower than forecasted. Adjusted for the

estimated deferred payments, cumulative

collections are approximately $236 million (5.6%)

lower than forecasted.

As shown in the “Key Revenue Variables” table,

unadjusted Revenue Act collections fell 21.1%

year over year. Retail sales tax collections

dropped 20.8% year over year and B&O tax

collections shrank 15.7% year over year.

Total tax payments as of May 1 from electronic

filers who also filed returns in the April 11 – May

10, 2019 period were down 1.4% year over year

(payments are mainly Revenue Act taxes but

include some non-Revenue Act taxes as well).

Last month payments were up 13.2% year over

year due to last year’s heavy snows. Some

details of payments from electronic filers:

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

$Billions

Seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts

Revenue Act Revenue 3-Month Moving Average

January 2004 through March 2020 activity

Current definition, adjusted for large payments/refunds and deferred April 2020 payments

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

$Billions

Seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts

Revenue Act Revenue 3-Month Moving Average

January 2004 through March 2020 activity

Current definition, adjusted for large payments/refunds and deferred April 2020 payments

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 5

 Total payments in the retail trade sector were

down 4.7% year over year. Last month,

payments were up 14.4% year over year.

 Payments from the motor vehicles and parts

sector decreased by 34.0% year over year.

Last month, payments in the sector grew

17.5% year over year.

 Retail trade sectors showing strong year-over-

year growth were food and beverage stores

(+25.5%), nonstore retailers (+12.2%),

building materials and garden supplies

(+9.1%), electronics and appliances (+8.8%)

and general merchandise stores (+8.6%).

 Besides autos, three retail sectors showed

declining year-over-year payments: apparel

and accessories (-44.4%), furniture and home

furnishings (-13.8%) and sporting goods,

toys, books, and music (-11.1%).

 Payments from non-retail trade sectors

increased 0.4% year over year in the current

period. Last month, year-over-year payments

increased 12.6%.

 Tax payments by businesses in the

accommodation and food services sector

shrank by 35.2% year over year. Last month

receipts from the sector increased 17.3% year

over year.

 Payments from the manufacturing sector

decreased by 6.0% year over year. Last

month payments increased 17.1% year over

year. This month saw a moderate decrease in

payments from the petroleum refining sector,

due to both a year-over-year decrease in oil

prices and a decrease in sales volume. The

month also saw a large decrease in payments

from the transportation equipment sector.

Excluding the transportation and petroleum

sectors, payments from the remaining

manufacturing sectors decreased by 6.9%

year over year after increasing 7.5% last

month.

 Tax payments by businesses in the

construction sector increased 6.7% year

over year. Last month receipts from the

construction sector increased 9.8% year

over year.

DOR Non-Revenue Act

April DOR non-Revenue Act collections came in

$27.3 million (8.2%) lower than forecasted.

Cumulatively, however, collections are now $8.0

million (1.2%) higher than forecasted.

The largest contributor to this month’s shortfall

was real estate excise tax (REET) collections,

which came in $12.4 million (8.2%) lower than

forecasted. While the drop in seasonally adjusted

sales from last month was considerable (see

figure), it was tempered by sales that, while

reported in April, were initiated in March before

the bulk of the virus-related shutdowns.

Reported sales of large commercial property

(property valued at $10 million or more) totaled

$299 million, down from last month’s total of

$633 million. Cumulatively, REET collections are

still $21.3 million (12.7%) higher than forecasted.

Property tax collections came in $9.4 million

(4.8%) lower than forecasted. Cumulatively,

collections are now $3.5 million (1.3%) lower

than forecasted.

Liquor taxes came in $0.1 million (0.6%) higher

than forecasted. Cumulatively, receipts are now

$1.6 million (2.3%) higher than forecasted.

Cigarette tax receipts came in $2.7 million

(10.3%) higher than forecasted.

Cumulatively,

however, receipts are now $2.3 million (3.2%)

lower than forecasted.

Net refunds of unclaimed property from the GF-S

were $3.3 million higher than forecasted.

Cumulatively, net refunds are now $6.3 million

higher than forecasted.

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Source: ERFC, data through April 2020 estimated activity

April REET activity declined due to COVID-19

shutdowns

Activity, $billions SA

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 6

Net refunds of unclaimed property from the GF-S

were $3.3 million higher than forecasted.

Cumulatively, net refunds are now $6.3 million

higher than forecasted.

All other DOR revenue came in $5.1 million

(27.5%) lower than forecasted, with shortfalls in

a large number of sources. Cumulatively,

collections are now $2.6 million (2.6%) lower

than forecasted.

Other Revenue

Revenue from the Administrative Office of the

Courts came in $0.4 million (7.1%) lower than

forecasted. Cumulatively, revenue is now $0.5

million (3.2%) lower than forecasted.

Key U.S. Economic Variable

2019 2020

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 2018 2019

Real GDP

(SAAR)

- 2.1 - - -4.8 - 2.9 2.3

Industrial Production

(SA, 2007 = 100)

110.0 109.6 109.1 109.3 104.3 92.6 108.6 109.5

YOY % Change -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -4.9 -15.0 3.9 0.9

ISM Manufacturin

Index (50+ = growth)

48.1 47.2 50.9 50.1 49.1 41.5 58.8 51.2

ISM Non-Manuf. Index

(50+ = growth)

53.9 54.9 55.5 57.3 52.5 41.8 58.9 55.6

Housin

Starts (SAAR, 000)

1,381 1,601 1,619 1,564 1,216 - 1,250 1,290

YOY % Change 14.9 40.2 25.4 36.1 1.4

3.9 3.2

ht Motor Vehicle Sales (SAAR, mil.)

17.0 16.6 16.9 16.8 11.4 8.6 17.2 16.9

YOY % Change -2.3 -4.2 1.3 1.4 -34.2 -47.9 0.5 -1.9

CPI (SA, 1982-84 = 100)

257.8 258.4 258.8 259.1 258.0 255.9 251.1 255.7

YOY % Change 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.4 2.4 1.8

Core CPI (SA, 1982-84 = 100)

265.5 265.8 266.5 267.1 266.8 265.6 257.6 263.2

YOY % Change 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.4 2.1 2.2

IPD for Consumption (2009=100)

110.2 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.5 - 108.1 109.7

YOY % Change 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.3

2.1 1.4

Nonfarm Payroll Empl., e-o-p (SA, mil.)

151.8 152.0 152.2 152.5 151.6 131.0 149.9 152.0

Monthly Change 0.26 0.18 0.21 0.25 -0.88 -20.54 2.31 2.13

Unemployment Rate (SA, percent)

3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.4 14.7 3.9 3.7

Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note

(percent)

1.81 1.86 1.76 1.50 0.87 0.66 2.91 2.14

Yield on 3-Month Treasury Bill

(percent)

1.57 1.57 1.55 1.54 0.30 0.14 1.97 2.10

Broad Real USD Index**

(Jan. 2006=100)

107.7 107.0 106.4 107.7 111.7 113.8 104.1 107.1

Federal Bud

et Deficit ($ bil.)*

208.8 13.3 32.6 235.3 119.0 737.9 779.0 984.4

FYTD sum 343.3 356.6 389.2 624.5 743.5 1,481.3

US Trade Balance ($ bil.)

-43.8 -48.6 -45.5 -39.8 -44.4 - -627.7 -616.4

YTD Sum -567.8 -616.4 -45.5 -85.3 -129.7

*Federal Fiscal Year runs from October 1st to September 30th.

**Weighted average of U.S. dollar foreign exchange values against currencies of major U.S. trading partners, Federal Reserve.

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

Page 7

Key Washin

ton Economic Variable

2019 2020

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 2018 2019

Employment

Total Nonfarm

(SA, 000)

3,494.3 3,503.5 3,513.4 3,519.6 3,510.3 3,057.3 3,431.5 3,503.5

Change from Previous Month (000) 9.0 9.2 9.9 6.2 -9.3 -453.0 72.8 71.9

Construction 221.8 222.1 223.0 226.3 224.9 174.9 218.7 222.1

Change from Previous Month 1.0 0.3 0.9 3.3 -1.4 -50.1 13.3 3.4

Manufacturin

293.3 293.6 292.7 292.8 290.6 265.9 293.0 293.6

Change from Previous Month 0.9 0.3 -0.9 0.1 -2.2 -24.7 9.5 0.6

Aerospace 88.8 89.5 89.0 88.2 87.6 81.2 86.4 89.5

Change from Previous Month 0.3 0.7 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -6.5 4.6 3.0

Software 71.9 72.3 72.5 73.4 73.6 70.0 67.4 72.3

Change from Previous Month 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.2 -3.5 4.6 4.9

All Other 2,907.4 2,915.5 2,925.1 2,927.1 2,921.2 2,546.5 2,852.4 2,915.5

Change from Previous Month 6.6 8.1 9.7 2.0 -5.9 -374.7 45.4 63.1

Other Indicators

Seattle CPI

(1982-84=100, NSA)

- 279.4 - 282.1 - 280.5 271.1 277.9

2.2%

2.5%

1.3% 3.2% 2.5%

Housin

Permits (SAAR, 000)

61.5 56.8 54.1 50.8 44.5 - 44.2 48.3

34.1% 17.3% 28.9% 45.4% -14.7%

-1.1% 9.3%

WA Index of Leadin

Ind. (2004=100)

129.7 130.2 129.0 129.4 120.3 - 127.4 128.8

1.7% 1.8% 0.8% 2.8% -6.7%

2.7% 1.1%

WA Business Cycle Ind. (Trend=50)

77.9 80.5 76.3 77.8 72.3 - 77.1 77.1

-0.2% 3.9% -1.4% 5.8% -5.3%

6.9% 0.0%

. Weekly Hours in Manuf. (SA)

42.6 42.9 41.7 42.1 41.2 - 42.3 42.6

-0.4% 0.0% -2.4% 3.1% -4.5%

1.5% 0.6%

. Hourly Earnin

s in Manuf. 29.8 30.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 - 28.4 29.3

3.1% 2.6% -0.3% -2.3% -2.5%

3.8% 3.1%

New Vehicle Re

istrations (SA, 000)

23.2 22.8 23.3 24.3 21.5 7.8 25.0 23.7

-13.1% -7.6% -5.7% 8.0% -11.9% -68.9% -1.4% -5.2%

Initial Unemployment Claims (SA, 000)

27.0 28.5 31.3 26.4 425.2 513.0 26.3 28.5

-2.4% 11.4% 5.0% -30.3% 1450.7% 1740.8% -2.0% 8.3%

Personal Income (SAAR, $bil.)

- 502.1 ---- 467.4 494.2

5.6%

----

7.5% 5.7%

Median Home Price ($000)

- 396.9 ---- 364.7 395.7

11.5%

----

5.9% 8.5%

*Employment data has been Kalman filtered and does not match figures released by the BLS

*Percentage Change is Year-over-Year

End-of-period

Annual Average

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

Page 8

Key Revenue Variables

Thousands of Dollars

2019 2020

Apr 11- May 11- Jun 11- Jul 11- Aug 11- Sep 11- Oct 11- Nov 11- Dec 11- Jan 11- Feb 11- Mar 11- Apr 11-

May 10 June 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10

Department of Revenue-Total 1,819,578 2,828,506 1,788,601 1,740,100 1,664,931 1,669,398 1,911,881 2,929,650 1,842,924 1,846,892 1,522,387 1,454,131 1,490,063

3.1

1.6 0.5 1.2 5.6 6.4 6.6 56.0 9.6 0.4 7.0 5.8 -18.1

Revenue Act 1,500,886 1,357,118 1,367,350 1,616,406 1,486,401 1,495,620 1,562,158 1,503,491 1,423,208 1,685,712 1,339,368 1,260,442 1,184,718

3.1 7.6 2.0 6.3 7.0 7.0 5.7 6.2 6.4 0.9 6.2 8.0 -21.1

Retail Sales Tax 964,737 907,741 941,300 1,075,554 993,590 1,009,745 1,040,129 985,246 950,720 1,117,362 862,669 757,294 763,803

3.1 9.2 5.2 7.0 6.6 7.3 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.2 4.9 0.2 -20.8

Business and Occupation Tax 406,947 352,276 336,474 428,944 375,192 375,531 413,841 404,396 386,709 456,130 357,309 380,128 343,195

4.0 8.5 -1.1 7.0 8.6 5.3 4.7 11.0 13.3 -7.3 5.9 26.2 -15.7

Use Tax 66,646 48,519 67,310 70,648 66,505 59,707 62,048 66,837 51,185 61,309 62,354 52,701 40,803

3.1 -13.5 10.0 17.0 9.0 11.3 1.7 -12.1 -21.9 -27.5 9.9 -6.7 -38.8

Public Utility Tax 45,075 35,415 34,296 34,204 31,224 33,101 29,952 24,115 19,276 33,511 42,140 41,429 28,781

-5.3 -1.2 3.2 2.9 -3.1 -6.6 -9.6 27.5 4.5 -5.5 8.7 -0.5 -36.1

Tobacco Products Tax 11,369 4,286 6,635 2,870 8,080 2,147 5,031 8,109 2,233 6,384 2,471 3,823 3,499

194.4 -34.5 125.2 -70.4 180.5 -31.4 -18.2 208.4 -9.5 123.5 -0.5 -40.1 -69.2

Penalties and Interest 6,112 8,881 -18,666 4,187 11,809 15,390 11,158 14,787 13,085 11,016 12,427 25,067 4,637

-54.1 40.5 -324.7 -61.1 -24.5 100.9 116.1 -46.8 14.2 -22.3 225.8 310.2 -24.1

Non-Revenue Act* 318,692 1,471,387 421,251 123,694 178,530 173,778 349,723 1,426,159 419,715 161,180 183,019 193,690 305,345

3.2 -3.4 -4.1 -37.7 -4.5 1.7 10.8 209.1 22.1 -4.8 13.0 -6.4 -4.2

Liquor Sales/Liter 22,156 21,658 24,790 24,216 28,592 24,327 22,959 24,162 24,751 35,389 22,906 20,278 25,200

-24.6 7.5 5.4 4.8 10.4 -1.2 6.2 5.0 3.9 5.0 4.1 -6.5 13.7

Cigarette 27,788 32,557 23,475 32,690 24,133 29,652 33,699 22,676 32,480 32,443 19,206 20,322 29,322

8.8 -6.0 -7.1 -6.6 -34.8 8.0 4.8 -22.9 10.9 7.6 -3.8 -4.6 5.5

Property (State School Levy) 160,233 1,315,310 258,619 -67,207 12,035 16,322 64,191 1,234,712 187,782 14,282 6,982 71,558 186,427

8.3 -0.1 0.9 -519.0 5.0 -9.5 43.0 300.1 -4.1 19.4 -9.4 34.2 16.3

Real Estate Excise 95,231 91,832 110,780 125,943 99,598 95,704 115,092 100,115 168,072 59,577 55,533 78,457 54,836

13.7 -7.0 -2.6 10.6 -7.5 10.5 3.8 39.6 91.9 -25.7 -7.5 1.3 -42.4

Unclaimed Property -6,216 -3,737 -6,907 -5,754 -185 -895 99,873 28,258 -2,628 2,517 560 -4,673 -3,985

-429.6 -146.8 67.9 -10.3 -96.0 -117.3 17.0 39.6 40.8 -217.1 -121.7 -538.4 -35.9

Other 19,500 13,768 10,494 13,806 14,357 8,668 13,909 16,236 9,258 16,973 77,831 7,747 13,546

-4.2 -69.9 -57.5 -18.0 53.1 -3.7 -33.2 94.9 4.0 9.9 42.1 -75.9 -30.5

Administrative Office of the Courts* 6,425 6,098 7,074 4,991 6,220 5,860 5,952 6,343 5,138 5,682 4,929 4,810 5,750

-9.5 -7.9 9.6 -18.5 -6.9 -6.1 -0.6 -10.0 -9.3 4.8 -10.7 -7.3 -10.5

Total General Fund-State** 1,826,003 2,834,603 1,795,675 1,745,091 1,671,152 1,675,258 1,917,833 2,935,993 1,848,061 1,852,574 1,527,316 1,458,941 1,495,813

3.0 1.6 0.5 1.2 5.6 6.4 6.6 55.8 9.6 0.4 6.9 5.8 -18.1

*Monthly Revenues (month of beginning of collection period)

** Detail may not add due to rounding. The GFS total in this report includes only collections from larger state agencies: the DOR, Lottery Commission, AOC and DOL.

Note: Italic figures refer to Year-over-Year percent change.

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

Page 9

Revenue Forecast Variance

Thousands of Dollars

Difference

Period/Source Estimate* Actual Amount Percent

April 11 - May 10, 2020

May 10, 2020 Collections Compared to the February 2020 Forecast

Department of Revenue-Total $1,924,238 $1,490,063 ($434,175) -22.6%

Revenue Act** (1) 1,591,581 1,184,718 (406,862) -25.6%

Non-Revenue Act(2) 332,657 305,345 (27,312) -8.2%

Liquor Sales/Liter 25,059 25,200 141 0.6%

Cigarette 26,582 29,322 2,739 10.3%

Property (State School Levy) 195,818 186,427 (9,392) -4.8%

Real Estate Excise

67,186 54,836 (12,350) -18.4%

Unclaimed Property (683) (3,985) (3,302) NA

Other 18,695 13,546 (5,149) -27.5%

Administrative Office of the Courts (2) 6,186 5,750 (436) -7.1%

Total General Fund-State*** $1,930,424 $1,495,813 ($434,611) -22.5%

Cumulative Variance Since the February Forecast (February 11, 2020 - May 10, 2020)

Department of Revenue-Total $4,894,594 $4,466,581 ($428,013) -8.7%

Revenue Act** (3) 4,220,548 3,784,528 (436,020) -10.3%

Non-Revenue Act(4) 674,046 682,053 8,007 1.2%

Liquor Sales/Liter 66,831 68,383 1,553 2.3%

Cigarette 71,138 68,850 (2,288) -3.2%

Property (State School Levy) 268,489 264,967 (3,522) -1.3%

Real Estate Excise 167,587 188,826 21,239 12.7%

Unclaimed Property (1,755) (8,097) (6,342) NA

Other 101,757 99,125 (2,633) -2.6%

Administrative Office of the Courts (4) 15,999 15,489 (511) -3.2%

Total General Fund-State*** $4,910,593 $4,482,070 ($428,523) -8.7%

1 Collections April 11 - May 10, 2020. Collections primarily reflect March 2020 activity of monthly filers

and first quarter 2020 activity of quarterly filers.

2 April 2020 collections.

3 Cumulative collections, estimates and variance since the February 2020 forecast (February 11, 2020 - May 10, 2020)

and revisions to history.

4 Cumulative collections, estimates and variance since the February forecast (February - April 2020) and revisions to history.

* Based on the February 2020 economic and revenue forecast released February 19, 2020.

**The Revenue Act consists of the retail sales, B&O, use, public utility, tobacco products taxes, and penalty and interest.

*** Detail may not add due to rounding. The General Fund-State total in this report includes only collections from the

Department of Revenue and the Administrative Office of the Courts.

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

Page 10